Cities and villages near coronavirus hotspots could be lifted out of the toughest lockdown levels if plans are worked out to quell growing Tory backbenches anger over the restrictions.
Ministers are trying to win Tories over by giving them hope that their constituencies will be “decoupled” from the hotspots when a review of the tier system is conducted in mid-December.
Conservative backers have indicated that Slough in Berkshire and Scarborough in North Yorkshire have already been “decoupled” from their own regions by dividing them into separate tiers.
The move appears to be designed to quell Tory’s anger at the economically damaging restrictions that England has hit 99 percent and blown as a “lockdown under another name”.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock is believed to have discussed the idea with MPs urging the government to come to the “correct conclusion” and fix the “mistake,” the Telegraph reports.
The call for a reassessment of the tiering structure for # 10 was spurred by an official graphic showing outbreaks showing parts of the north and midlands that could be “de-escalated” from levels 2 and 3 in January.
The table, released by the Ministry of Health last night but created by the secret Joint Biosecurity Center that is pulling the strings behind the local lockdowns, shows that some parts of the country are seeing the rate of infection falling the fastest and health bosses are monitoring their continued improvement ‘.
Although much of the north of the country and the Midlands will be subject to the strictest Tier 3 rules after the UK lockdown ends on December 2nd, many areas may already be on their way to relaxing the rules.
Boris Johnson faces a war with up to 70 Tories, who are annoyed that their constituencies are faced with overly strict rules. Only people on the Isle of Wight, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly can socialize indoors in December.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Tory Committee, wrote for the Post saying he would vote next week against the restrictions he warned “threaten to destroy the social fabric of Britain”.
It comes as SAGE announced yesterday that the virus’ reproductive rate (R) has fallen for the third straight week and is now below one for the UK overall for the first time in three months.
Another 16,022 positive coronavirus tests were reported by the Ministry of Health today. This is the 12th straight day the daily average has fallen, along with 521 deaths.
In other coronavirus news:
- Michael Gove called on MPs to support his animal system, otherwise every hospital in England will be overrun.
- SAGE urged families to stay away from singing, dancing, and even playing board games when celebrating Christmas.
- More than 1,300 people were falsely told that they had coronavirus between November 19 and 23.
- The Downing Street Union Unit requested that the British flag be printed on Oxford University’s Covid-19 vaccine.
- In the town halls, millions of personal data about residents are collected using Covid software, according to the mail.
The ministers are trying to win Tories over by giving them hope that if the system is reviewed, their constituencies will be “decoupled” from the hotspots. Derby town center (pictured) has a higher number of falls than the Derbyshire Dales
Many Tory MPs have pointed out that towns and villages near Covid-19 hotspots have much lower numbers of coronavirus cases than neighboring areas. For example, the Derbyshire Dales has a fewer number of falls than Derby city center
The latest available data shows that on November 20, there were only 17 coronavirus cases in the Derbyshire Dales (right), while 74 new Covid-19 cases were recorded in Derby city center on the same day (left).
An official graph showing coronavirus outbreaks across the country suggests there are parts of the north of England and the Midlands that could be de-escalated from Levels 2 and 3 in January
The Department of Health announced the new tiers England will be split into if the lockdown ends December 2nd
Another 16,022 positive coronavirus tests were reported by the Ministry of Health today. This is the 12th straight day the daily average has fallen, along with 521 deaths
Nottinghamshire and Warwickshire are already close to entering Tier 2 due to falling infection rates, according to the graphic. They appear closer to the yellow tier 2 group than to tier 3 in red.
Stratford upon Avon was a place that caused a stir when it was found to be on the toughest curbs, as the infection rate there is only about half the national average. And the graph shows a rapid decline in cases in South Yorkshire, Lancashire and Derbyshire that could benefit them in the coming weeks.
The PHE report states, “This graph shows some decreases in weekly case rates in the north of England and other areas where case rates are high but declining. Continuous improvement in the coming period could turn these areas into candidates for de-escalation in the New Year. ‘
Meanwhile, Suffolk is one of the least affected areas in Tier 2 and it might even be on track to enter the coveted Tier 1 currently only granted to Cornwall and the Isle of Wight.
A dispute erupted this week over the government’s tiering decisions as MPs and members of the public in many tier 3 areas were outraged at having to face the strictest rules despite relatively low or improved infection rates.
For example, the whole of Kent is only rated Tier 3 in a few areas, despite high infection rates, while Stratford upon Avon along with the rest of Warwickshire is dragged into the toughest of rules, although there are fewer coronavirus cases there than average.
The graph created by the Joint Biosecurity Center compares infection rates in the week ending November 19 with those in the week ending November 12.
Areas further to the right had higher infection rates in the past week, while those closer to the top had higher case rates the week before.
A larger circle dictates a higher rate of coronavirus cases in people aged 60 and over, which is one of the most important elements when assessing an area’s outbreak.
In all places with blobs above the diagonal dotted line, the infection rates decreased in the week between November 12 and 19. In the areas below the dotted line, infections increased – only Kent had a sharp increase.
There are clear differences between the colors of the various constraints in the graphic, with noticeable gaps between each level.
Some outliers look like they might be too harsh already, with Suffolk in yellow although grouped with green, and Warwickshire and Nottinghamshire in red despite being grouped with areas of yellow.
And while some areas look like they could fall through the ranks after the locks were lifted in the coming weeks, Cheshire, North Yorkshire and Shropshire are currently at the top of the Tier 2 section, meaning they will tougher during outbreaks Measures could be exposed to no longer grow.
However, hard-hit northern areas such as Humber, West Yorkshire, Tees Valley and Staffordshire, and Birmingham and Sandwell in the Midlands, appear unable to escape Tier 3 measures anytime soon.
Your infection rates are still high and the large circles in the graph indicate many cases in the elderly, which will inevitably put more pressure on hospitals in early December.
The government’s local animal rules will come into effect next Wednesday, December 2nd.
The blocking rules usually take at least four weeks to be reviewed by ministers. However, they can be checked as early as December 16 and are expected to be interrupted by a period of relaxation over Christmas.
Stricter measures may then be required to prevent infected people from spreading further this Christmas.
SAGE has warned the government that coronavirus cases could easily double over the Christmas season if people are allowed to abolish social distancing rules for a short period of time.
Downing Street is expected to stick to its plans to post lockdown rules this Christmas that will allow people to bubble with multiple households, as well as the plans for the local levels.
In a round of interviews, Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick tried to ease tension by emphasizing that there will be a grade assignment review on December 16, which will then be reviewed every week.
The UK coronavirus reproduction rate may have fallen below the crucial number of one (see left). SAGE estimates that every region in England has an R below one except for London and the South East, where it hovers around the all-important number. A growing number of Tory MPs (listed on right) have openly criticized the government’s local lockdown levels – although some have indicated that they will abstain from a crunch vote next week rather than directly opposing the plan
‘It is possible. In 14 days, around December 16, there will be a checkpoint. At this point, we will – with expert advice – examine each area of the local authorities and see if there is any potential to move down the levels, ”he told Sky News.
However, MPs told MailOnline that Health Secretary Helen Whately said on a conference call that there would be little room for change in allotments before January. And government sources told the Times that it would have to wait for the effects of the relaxation of the “Christmas bubble” to become clear.
SAGE experts also questioned the idea of postponements in two weeks, warning that it would not be long enough to assess what impact the measures had had.
Mr Jenrick said the places that could be moved down were the ones that had been “finely balanced” in decisions made this week.
“There have been a number of places where the judgments were fairly balanced, where they were at the height of different levels. These are the places where they are more likely to be in that position, ”he said.
“We must also keep in mind that there will be an opening over the Christmas season that is likely to lead to a higher rate of infection when some people meet family and friends on Christmas Day and in the days around them.
‘Our overall approach is to ensure that the levels hold the line and that the locations are in a de-escalation process. What we don’t want is to wear off too quickly and then find that we have to get the levels back up in January.
“But there is every reason to believe that locations could change from December 16-17.”
Areas of England that the data suggests may have unfairly strict or lax rules under the new local system included parts of Greater Manchester and London, Kent, Stratford upon Avon and Derbyshire.
Greater Manchester has been ranked Tier 3, although many parts of the area have lower rates of infection than the London boroughs. Eight parts of Manchester have infection rates that are above the UK average (204 positive tests per 100,000 people) compared to seven parts of the capital.
Trafford, for example, had a coronavirus infection rate of 164 cases per 100,000 people for the week ending November 22. This was 47 percent lower than the previous week, marking the fourth fastest decline in the country.
Near Stockport, the infection rate fell 38 percent from 319 per 100,000 to 198.
The two will be put into Tier 3 lockdown, although infection rates are significantly lower than many parts of London, including Havering, which has 319 cases per 100,000 in the past week.
Redbridge, Barking and Dagenham, Bexley, Tower Hamlets, Newham, Waltham Forest, and Enfield also had higher infection rates.
The Department of Health said in a document justifying its rules: “While Greater Manchester has seen further improvements, weekly case rates, particularly among those over 60, remain very high at around 260 per 100,000 people.
‘Pressure on the local NHS is easing in some areas but remains a cause for concern. Manchester University Hospital and the Pennine Acute Trust remain under significant pressure. ‘
And on London it added: “Overall, the situation in London in Tier 2 has stabilized with a similar case rate and positivity to other parts of the country.”
But NHS data also shows that hospitals in London appear to be busier than those in Manchester.
Manchester University Hospitals, Pennine Acute Hospitals and the Bolton NHS Trust – three of the largest hospital trusts in the region – had occupied between 80 and 89 percent of their beds between November 2nd and 22nd.
By comparison, some of London’s largest hospitals – Royal Free, Lewisham and Greenwich, King’s College, UCL Hospitals, North Middlesex and Barts Health – had more than 90 percent occupancy in the same week.
In Kent, Ashford and Tunbridge Wells were told they would be forced into a Level 3 lockdown despite lower and falling rates of positive tests.
While both recorded 120 cases per 100,000 people a week as of Nov. 21, they were placed in a centi-wide Tier 3 lockdown caused by rising case rates in the nearby Swale, Medway, and Thanet regions where the rates are positive cases per 100,000 during the lockdown rose to 646.
Manchester University Hospitals, Pennine Acute Hospitals and the Bolton NHS Trust – three of the largest hospital trusts in the region – had occupied between 80 and 89 percent of their beds between November 2nd and 22nd. By comparison, some of London’s largest hospitals – the Royal Free, Lewisham and Greenwich, King’s College, UCL Hospitals, North Middlesex and Barts Health – all had more than 90 percent occupancy in the same week
Above is the county of Kent alongside its different rates of infection. The highest levels are in Thanet, Swale, and separate County Medway
Stratford upon Avon only had 108 positive tests per 100,000 residents in the week ending November 22nd, but the city is under Tier 3 lockdown for all of Warwickshire (195). Authorities bordering Stratford have similar rates – Daventry (123) and Cherwell (100) – but escape Tier 3 because they are across county lines in Northamptonshire and Oxfordshire
The Derbyshire Dales and Stratford-upon-Avon in Warwickshire have suffered the same fate and have come under the toughest restrictions because of their neighbors. Both will enter Tier 3 starting next Thursday when the national lockdown is lifted but infection rates are well below average (204 per 100,000) and falling. In the Derbyshire Dales, the rate is 171 but is part of a Tier 3 rule across the county and Derby City which had infection rates of 212 and 249, respectively, according to PHE data
County MP Damian Green said in a tweet: “I am very disappointed that all of Kent was ranked Tier 3. Before the lockdown, we were in Tier 1, so what did the lockdown achieve?”
Meanwhile, the Derbyshire Dales and Stratford-upon-Avon in Warwickshire have suffered the same fate, which has become severely restricted because of their neighbors.
Both will enter Tier 3 starting next Thursday when the national lockdown is lifted but infection rates are well below average (204 per 100,000) and falling.
In the Derbyshire Dales, the rate is 171 but is part of a tier 3 rule across the county and Derby City which had infection rates of 212 and 249, respectively, according to PHE data.
Stratford upon Avon only had 108 positive tests per 100,000 residents in the week ending November 22nd, but the city is under Tier 3 lockdown for all of Warwickshire (195).
Authorities bordering Stratford have similar rates – Daventry (123) and Cherwell (100) – but escape Tier 3 because they are across county lines in Northamptonshire and Oxfordshire.
The Department of Health said pressure on hospitals in Warwickshire “remains high”.
But the South Warwickshire NHS Trust averaged 81 percent of its beds in the past 14 days, making it one of the 20 least busy in the country.
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