Rail travelers are likely to ignore the five-day bubble window over Christmas for fear of overcrowding, the analysis shows.
Rail travel during the holiday season will peak at 11 a.m. on December 23, the day coronavirus rules are relaxed but thousands plan to travel before or return home afterwards.
For some of the UK’s largest broadcasters, demand will quadruple in the week before the relaxation of the rules comes into effect.
According to Zipabout analysis (Photo: Kings Cross Station, London), rail travelers will probably ignore the five-day bubble window over Christmas for fear of overcrowding.
According to analysis, the holiday cruise will peak on December 23rd at 11 a.m., the day the coronavirus rules are relaxed (Image: Kings Cross to Leeds train).
They will be three times as busy in the days after the tier system returns, according to Zipabout, a tech company that advises the government on overcrowding.
The analysis, which uses forecast data as opposed to historical trips, shows that London Euston will be the busiest during the holiday season.
According to the analysis by The Daily Telegraph, the day before Christmas Eve demand will rise nine times its normal level.
The most popular travel time for routes to and from the northeast is between 11pm and 1pm on December 23rd.
The analysis, which uses forecast data as opposed to historical trips, shows that London Euston will be the busiest during the holiday season (Image: Passengers in Euston in 2017).
It comes under warnings from the train operators and the traffic secretary that passengers should plan ahead as social distancing measures mean a reduction in capacity.
Six of the ten busiest stations will be in London, while Edinburgh, Manchester, Leeds and Brighton will also be particularly busy, the analysis shows.
Research also shows that people plan to travel outside the Christmas bubble window, with the four days leading up to Christmas being five times as busy as usual.
On December 18th, demand will increase 3.6 times, while on December 21st it will be four times stronger. December 22nd will be 3.8 times.
Six of the 10 busiest stations will be in London, while Edinburgh (pictured), Manchester, Leeds and Brighton will also be particularly busy
Similarly, it shows that most people do not intend to travel home on Sunday, December 27th, when the rules for bubbling end, but rather in the following days.
The government guidelines state: “You should not travel to see your bladder before December 23rd or return after December 27th, except in exceptional circumstances.”
Zipabout is the first to forecast demand by analyzing passenger interactions with online travel planners and departure boards.
Crispin Humm, chief business development officer at Zipabout, said knowing which trains are the most popular would enable passengers to “plan ahead and avoid busy services”.
Demand can change as people change their plans closer to Christmas.
People plan to travel outside the Christmas bubble window, with the four days leading up to Christmas being five times busier than usual (file image)
The government will also announce plans to reduce overcrowding, which include increasing services and carts.
Three households are allowed to create “Christmas bubbles” over the Christmas period after politicians across the UK agreed to loosen the curbs.
The casual activities will take place from Wednesday December 23rd through Sunday December 27th and will allow families in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland to meet.
But a blow for the hotel industry, the Christmas bubbles may only meet in private houses, places of worship and in public spaces outdoors.
However, the regulations seem to suggest that family members can stay longer after December 27 if their train is delayed or if their car breaks down.
The loophole applies to all members of three households, even if only one person is late.