The Brexit talks are on the verge of collapse today. Michel Barnier is “dejected” and there is already a bitter guilt game.
Pressure mounts after 24 hours of talks between the EU envoy and David Frost, with no sign of a breakthrough.
Mr Barnier briefed the bloc’s ambassadors this morning, but made a grimly negative tone. Lord Frost simply said he was working “very hard” when he came to the latest discussions in Brussels.
Rumors of a new compromise on fisheries have been flatly rejected by the UK and although Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron allegedly weakened the “final offer” requirement for a level playing field, the stalemate remains.
Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said no progress had been made.
British government officials said a call between Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tonight will be critical and did not rule out the Prime Minister pulling the plug during talks.
“It doesn’t sound like it’s going very well,” said one.
As evidence of the increasing friction, British diplomats have pointed the finger at the Dutchman’s allegations that a fisheries agreement had indeed been reached.
“They did it before the issue was even addressed,” a source told MailOnline. “I suppose with the intention of proposing that things are close to agreement – which they are not.”
There is speculation that the Dutch wanted to ease compromise pressure in other areas by suggesting that fisheries be regulated.
Notoriously vowing to make Brexit “do or die”, Mr Johnson has told Chief Ambassador Lord Frost that he will not sign a treaty binding Britain to future Brussels laws.
Ministers tonight are also pushing the restoration of controversial clauses of the Single Market Act that enraged the EU as they would effectively override parts of the earlier Brexit divorce terms to prevent deadlocks between the UK and Northern Ireland.
Cabinet ministers gathered behind Mr Johnson yesterday and insisted that he was not afraid to get out of the EU single market and customs union without an agreement being reached by January 1st.
However, the recent iteration of the Cabinet’s September no-deal planning document warns of a number of threats from the collapsing talks.
These include drug and fuel shortages, rising food prices, public disorder and increased risk of terrorism, clashes with EU trawlers, and border disputes and tariffs.
The memo shows that some cabinet ministers remain nervous about the impact the disagreement is having on the UK as it grapples with the economic devastation caused during the pandemic. A source told the mail: “The possibility of chaos at the border is vastly undervalued if the talks collapse. ‘
British officials were baffled by a tightening of the EU’s negotiating stance last week and have come out against Mr Macron for threatening to veto an agreement that runs counter to French interests.
He also wants a post-Brexit deal to include the power to levy tariffs if the UK does not comply with EU rules on issues such as employment rights and the environment.
According to The Times, Ms. Merkel and Mr. Macron have teamed up to make a “conciliatory” final offer and to water down calls for so-called “level playing fields” on certain issues between the UK and the EU.
But it is said to have been delivered along with a warning from Mr Macron that he is on the verge of breaking off talks so that France cannot prepare for a deal.
Ireland, which has the most to lose from failure, yesterday called on both sides to keep talking and a close ally of Mr Macron admitted that Mrs Merkel was pushing for an agreement.
Boris Johnson stands ready to end Brexit talks within 48 hours unless the EU drops “ridiculous” demands that would curtail Britain’s independence. Pictured on December 2nd during a press conference
A 34-page dossier on the “reasonable worst-case scenario” sets out what No10 could do in the event that the UK leaves the EU in the New Year without a trade deal in place
Negotiations between Lord Frost and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier will resume this morning after no progress was made the previous day
Lord Frost resumed talks with Mr Barnier in Brussels this morning after traveling to the Belgian capital yesterday to obtain what the government has dubbed “the last dice roll”.
A source said Mr Johnson was ready to leave as early as tonight unless the EU pulled out, adding: “It’s fair to say the Prime Minister isn’t bluffing. It is pretty clear that if the EU cannot accept that we will be an independent nation, we will leave on no deal terms.
“There will be no agreement if the EU does not recognize this reality. We will only keep talking when there is some movement and when we think there is any purpose. ‘
An ally of the prime minister said he was “optimistic” about the UK’s prospects outside the EU, with or without a trade deal.
A high-ranking figure from Downing Street said yesterday that the odds of a deal are “50:50 at best.” Another insider put the number at just 30 percent.
Mr Coveney told reporters that Mr Barnier made a “very grim, dejected” assessment in his briefing this morning.
“Really no progress was made yesterday so we have to try to break through sometime today,” said the Irish minister.
In a round of interviews this morning, Secretary of State James Cleverly said the possibility of a no-deal Brexit should not be seen as “Armageddon” and called on the EU to show more flexibility.
“Countries can trade perfectly without a formal trade agreement, as Australia does with the EU,” the foreign minister told LBC.
“There have been people who have tried to call the idea that we are going without a trade deal a kind of Armageddon.
“It is less preferable than a trade deal, but … you can trade successfully with the EU without a formal trade deal.
“If we have to do that, we have to do it, but we are in a position to do something better if the EU shows a little flexibility and adaptability in these final hours or days of negotiation.”
Mr Cleverly was more optimistic, saying the pressure of an upcoming deadline “tends to focus the heads of negotiators on both sides of the table” in order to “get things over the line”.
Mr Johnson will be calling tonight on Tory MPs to reintroduce controversial clauses in Single Market Law that the Lords rejected after Ministers admitted they were breaking international law.
UK Task Force Europe Chief Negotiator David Frost will meet European Union (EU) Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier (invisible) on Brexit negotiations at the European Commission in Brussels, Belgium on December 6th
A source said Mr Johnson was ready to leave as early as tonight unless the EU pulled out, adding: “It’s fair to say the Prime Minister isn’t bluffing.”
British negotiators were stunned by a tightening of the EU position at the behest of French President Emmanuel Macron, who said he would veto any deal that threatened French interests
Mr Barnier has warned that such a move would turn the talks into crisis.
Downing Street claims the measures are needed to prevent the EU from driving a No Deal wedge between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
Cabinet minister Michael Gove will meet his UK-EU counterpart Maros Sefcovic in the Joint Committee later in Brussels to try to defuse the dispute over the legislation.
A spokesman said: “The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster will meet with Vice-President Sefcovic in Brussels today to discuss matters related to her work as co-chair of the Joint Committee on the Take Back Agreement.
The Joint Committee on the Withdrawal Agreement monitors the implementation, application and interpretation of the Withdrawal Agreement by the UK and the EU, including the Northern Ireland Protocol.
“The work of the Joint Committee is separate from the ongoing negotiations on a free trade agreement.”
Mr Johnson made another phone call this evening with the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to discuss whether it is worth continuing the talks.
A # 10 source confirmed that the protracted negotiations “are within the last 48 hours”.
Cabinet ministers yesterday backed the Prime Minister pursuing No Deal in case talks collapsed, saying he had a mandate to ensure Britain regains control of its laws. However, many remain concerned about the impact of no deal on a fragile economy.
A leaked official document setting out the government’s “worst case scenario” for no deal warned that vital supplies, including medication, could be seriously disrupted.
Environment Secretary George Eustice admitted that No Deal tariffs would lead to higher food prices but insisted the increase would be modest.
In a series of interviews yesterday, he accused the EU of “introducing a whole bunch of additional demands” late in the day, adding: “There is no point in denying that what happened late last week was a setback. “
He described the EU’s demands on fisheries as “ridiculous” and said they would mock the UK’s newfound status as an independent coastal state.
He said the Prime Minister is ready to give assurances that the UK will not lower standards on environmental protection and employment rights.
However, he said Mr Johnson would never sign a contract in line with Mr Macron’s call for the UK to continue to comply with EU rules.
Eurosceptic MPs yesterday put pressure on the Prime Minister not to let up. Former Brexit Minister David Jones, who is a member of MPs European Research Group, tweeted: “Absolute confidence in David Frost and the UK negotiating team to stand firm in pursuing a fair free trade deal that respects UK sovereignty. We don’t have to settle for anything less. ‘
Tory Andrew Bridgen has said the Prime Minister would be “done” if he signed a treaty that did not guarantee independence.
Former Treasury Secretary Nick Macpherson said the breakdown with France had the characteristics of a made-up range that often preceded an agreement.
‘Britain needs a deal. The EU wants a deal, ”added Lord Macpherson. “To win over your constituencies, there has to be a lot of drama in the coming days.
‘But there will be. There is always – unless one of the parties makes a gross miscalculation. ‘
EU leaders will hold a summit on Thursday, seen as the last chance to sign an agreement.
Frenchman Emmanuel Macron wants every trade deal to have the power to levy tariffs if the UK fails to comply with EU rules on issues such as employment rights and the environment
President Macron admitted that Angela Merkel from Germany (pictured) is pushing for an agreement
EU is at war for no deal Brexit: while Emmanuel Macron is playing hardball, Ireland warns of a “very, very costly” failure to sign a trade deal … and even Angela Merkel is not on board
- British officials claim Emmanuel Macron hampered progress on the Brexit talks
- He forced the EU negotiator Michel Barnier to tighten his stance in the negotiations
- Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheal Martin said he believed an agreement will be reached
- Even Angela Markel isn’t on board with some of France’s hardline positions
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Emmanuel Macron is under pressure from EU leaders to withdraw from Brexit.
British officials claim the French president derailed progress last week by forcing EU negotiator Michel Barnier to tighten his stance at the last minute.
But over time, European leaders warned that it was important to get a trade deal.
Emmanuel Macron is being pressured by EU leaders to step back on Brexit as talks continue
Angela Merkel does not endorse France’s tough stance on state aid, workers’ rights and environmental standards
Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheal Martin said he felt an agreement would be reached because the alternative would “harm everyone involved”.
The country’s foreign minister, Simon Coveney, said any other outcome was “pointless” for both sides.
Mr Coveney, whose country is having the worst impact of No Deal, said failure was “very, very costly and very, very disruptive”.
He added: “That makes no political sense and certainly no economic or social sense in the context of a post-Covid world, which is an enormous economic challenge for everyone.
“For all of these reasons, I think the negotiating teams and senior politicians will find a way to get a deal here, but right now we are in a difficult place as we try to close it.”
Ireland’s Prime Minister Michael Martin said he felt an agreement would be reached because the alternative would “harm everyone involved”.
The French minister for Europe admitted yesterday that some other EU heads of state and government – including Germany’s Angela Merkel – did not support France’s tough stance on state aid, workers’ rights and environmental standards.
In an interview with the Journal du Dimanche, Clement Beaune said: “There are different sensitivities in the 27 EU countries. It would be naive to deny it. However, the negotiating mandate is detailed and we are sticking to it.
“Chancellor Merkel wants a deal, but she also defends our demands – and she knows the European market well enough to guess how the German economy would suffer from a bad deal. In short, the UK gamble to divide the EU has failed. ‘
On Friday, Mr Beaune warned that President Macron was ready to veto an agreement if it failed to meet French demands.
But yesterday he said France was ready to consider allowing Britain to deviate freely from EU standards – provided Brussels could take “corrective action” if the differences became too great.
“The British want access to the European internal market without restrictions on their social, environmental or health standards, which is unacceptable,” he said. “For our part, we are ready to introduce a system in which a deviation from the standards would be allowed, but beyond which corrective action would be taken.
“The British tell us that this is unfair because other ‘third countries’ do not have the same restrictions as Canada. However, we must be aware that tomorrow the UK will be our main trading partner outside the EU. Between the EU and Britain has ten times as much trade as Canada. ‘
France has support from other coastal states such as the Netherlands and Belgium, which are also concerned about their domestic fishing industries.
However, other member states, led by Germany, are keen to avoid a destabilizing no-deal outcome when the continent is already facing a double recession as a result of the pandemic.
In another sign of tension in the EU, the Netherlands proposed last night to compromise on fishing rights.
Government sources, however, said the Prime Minister will not accept Mr Macron’s demands for a level playing field, where he is pushing for Brussels to have the power to impose immediate tariffs if the UK is too far removed from EU rules in the future .
Gavin Barwell, who was Chief of Staff on Downing Street during Theresa May’s tenure, said: “Some in the EU believe that Britain will be forced to return to the negotiating table.
“But there is a real risk that if we don’t get a deal now, we will have significant damage to the relationship that will take time to correct.”
Mr Barnier will brief the EU ambassadors this morning after trade talks resumed last night.
Union leader Len McCluskey says Sir Keir Starmer cannot avoid an important Brexit vote if an agreement is reached
By Claire Ellicott Political Correspondent for the Daily Mail
Sir Keir Starmer wurde gestern Abend von Labours größtem Gewerkschaftsförderer unter Druck gesetzt, einen Brexit-Deal zu unterstützen, falls eine Einigung erzielt wird.
Unite-Chef Len McCluskey warnte ihn davor, auf dem Zaun zu sitzen – aber die Labour-Frontbencher hielten sich gestern an die Parteilinie und weigerten sich, eine Stimmenthaltung bei einer künftigen Abstimmung über einen Brexit-Deal auszuschließen.
Sir Keir hat eine schwierige Aufgabe darin, den harten Kern seiner Partei aus Remainern mit dem Kernland der Labour Party im Norden zu vereinen, das den Brexit unterstützte und bei den letzten Wahlen zu den Tories wechselte.
Unite-Chef Len McCluskey warnte Sir Keir Starmer, bei der bevorstehenden Brexit-Abstimmung nicht auf dem Zaun zu sitzen
Sir Keir hat eine schwierige Aufgabe, den harten Kern seiner Partei, Remainer, mit dem Kernland der Labour Party im Norden zu verbinden
Herr McCluskey sagte gestern, es wäre “völlig falsch” für Labour, nicht auf die eine oder andere Weise zu wählen, da der Brexit das “wichtigste Thema des Tages” sei.
Der Fußball-Experte Gary Neville mischte sich ebenfalls ein und beschuldigte die Partei, auf der Tribüne zu sitzen, indem sie sich letzte Woche des Tier-Systems enthielt.
Herr McCluskey sagte, Sir Keir müsse “das Vertrauen der Sitze der Roten Mauer gewinnen”, die zu den Tories im Norden wechselten.
Er sagte, der Labour-Führer sollte nicht als “im Weg stehend” gesehen werden, wofür die Rote Mauer gestimmt hat, sondern sich gegen jeden Deal aussprechen, der nicht gut genug ist.
„Auf der anderen Seite, wenn es ein dünner Deal ist – was ich vermute, wenn wir tatsächlich einen Deal bekommen -, muss er auch in sechs Monaten in der Lage sein, wenn etwas schief geht, um die Regierung ohne sie angreifen zu können Als Heuchler angesehen zu werden, weil er für den Deal gestimmt hat “, sagte McCluskey gegenüber Times Radio. Auf die Frage der Labour-Abstimmung für einen Deal gedrängt, antwortete Herr McCluskey: „Ja, meiner Meinung nach wollen wir den Brexit fertigstellen und aus dem Weg räumen. Es wird uns nicht davon abhalten, kritisch zu sein, wenn der Deal uns tatsächlich alle möglichen Probleme und Probleme bereitet vorwärts gehen.’
Sir Keirs Position ist es, abzuwarten, was der Brexit-Deal von Boris Johnson aushandelt – eine Haltung, die seine Frontbencher gestern wiederholt haben, als sie sich weigerten, eine Stimmenthaltung bei einer Abstimmung auszuschließen.
Die Ministerin des Schattenkabinetts, Rachel Reeves, sagte: “Mal sehen”, als sie gefragt wurde, ob Labour einen zukünftigen Brexit-Deal unterstützen würde.
Nick Thomas-Symonds, Schattenheimsekretär, sagte, es sei “verantwortlich” für die Partei, über einen vereinbarten Deal nachzudenken.
Kein Deal Brexit könnte zu Medikamentenversorgungsengpässen, Inflation und Störungen in der Öffentlichkeit führen, wie No10s geheimes 34-seitiges Dossier „Worst-Case-Szenario“ zeigt, als Boris droht, wegzugehen
Von Jack Wright für MailOnline
Das Vereinigte Königreich könnte im Falle eines No-Deal-Brexit von Unruhen in der Öffentlichkeit, einer Verknappung der Arzneimittelversorgung und steigenden Lebensmittelpreisen überwältigt werden, wie ein durchgesickertes Regierungsdokument zeigt, da die Gespräche kurz vor dem Zusammenbruch stehen.
In einem 34-seitigen Dossier mit dem Titel „Angemessenes Worst-Case-Szenario“ wird dargelegt, was No10 für den Fall tun könnte, dass Großbritannien im neuen Jahr aus der EU ausscheidet, ohne dass ein Handelsabkommen besteht.
Darin heißt es: “Die Durchflussraten von Arzneimitteln und Medizinprodukten könnten sich zunächst über einen Zeitraum von drei Monaten auf 60-80% verringern, was sich, wenn sie nicht verringert werden, auf die Versorgung mit Arzneimitteln und Medizinprodukten in ganz Großbritannien auswirken würde.”
Das nervöse Dokument warnt auch vor “Protesten und Gegenprotesten”, einem Zusammenstoß zwischen britischen und EU-Fischtrawlern, “Preiserhöhungen bei Nahrungsmitteln und Treibstoffen”, die durch “reduzierte” verursacht werden [food] Verfügbarkeit der Versorgung “und ein erhöhtes Risiko für Terrorismus.
Eine Regierungsquelle bestätigte ihre Echtheit und teilte Robert Peston von ITV mit, dass das im September verfasste “offiziell sensible” Dokument die Notfallplanung weiterhin untermauert.
Das Leck kommt, nachdem ein “bullischer” Boris Johnson seinem Chefbotschafter David Frost gesagt hat, er werde die Brexit-Gespräche innerhalb von 48 Stunden beenden, es sei denn, die EU lässt “lächerliche” Forderungen fallen, die die Unabhängigkeit Großbritanniens einschränken würden.
No10 plant eine Reihe von Krisen – von Nahrungsmittel- und Drogenknappheit bis hin zu Unruhen -, wenn das Vereinigte Königreich den Binnenmarkt und die Zollunion verlässt, ohne dass bis zum 1. Januar eine Handelsvereinbarung besteht.
Weitere Bedenken sind Grenzverzögerungen und Zölle, die zu einer Unterbrechung der Versorgung mit kritischen Chemikalien, einem Kraftstoffmangel und einer Verringerung der Versorgung mit Arzneimitteln für den Veterinärbereich im Vereinigten Königreich führen, was die Fähigkeit der Regierung zur Verhütung und Bekämpfung von Krankheitsausbrüchen einschränken würde.
Das Dokument auf höchster Ebene warnt davor, dass bis zu 70 Prozent der in die EU fahrenden Lastwagen „möglicherweise nicht für neue Grenzkontrollen bereit sind“ – was den Fluss über den kurzen Kanalübergang auf 80 Prozent des normalen Niveaus reduzieren könnte.
Dies könnte zu Warteschlangen von 7.000 Lastwagen in Kent und Verzögerungen von zwei Tagen führen, obwohl No10 glaubt, dass die “schlimmste Störung innerhalb von drei Monaten abklingen würde”.
The ‘official secret’ document is also preparing for the worst-case possibility that the transition from ‘internal security cooperation with the EU’ to ‘non-EU mechanisms’ may not be seamless and could ‘result in a mutual reduction in capability to tackle crime and terrorism’.
A 34-page ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ dossier sets out what No10 believes could happen in the event that Britain crashes out of the EU in the New Year without a trade deal in place
The leak comes after Boris Johnson told his chief envoy David Frost he will quit Brexit talks within 48 hours unless the EU drops ‘ludicrous’ demands that would curb UK independence
The EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier (centre) in Westminster, London, ahead of talks with the UK Government to strike a post-Brexit trade deal
It comes after Environment Secretary George Eustice yesterday admitted that food prices, particularly beef and pork, would rise if the UK fails to get a trade deal. Under No10’s ‘worst-case scenario’, ‘low income groups will be disproportionately affected by any price rises in food and fuel.’
‘There will be some impact on prices but the analysis that has been done by some of the economic modellers is that it is quite modest – less than 2 per cent as a result of tariffs,’ Mr Eustice told BBC1’s The Andrew Marr Show.
In a series of interviews yesterday, Mr Eustice also accused the EU of introducing ‘a whole load of additional demands’ late in the day, adding: ‘There is no point denying that what happened late last week was a setback.’
He described the EU’s demands on fishing as ‘ludicrous’, saying they would make a mockery of Britain’s newfound status as an independent coastal state.
He said the PM was willing to give assurances that the UK would not slash standards in environmental protection and employment rights. But he said Mr Johnson would never sign off a deal that met Mr Macron’s demand for Britain to continue following EU rules in future.
The Cabinet indicated it will back the PM if he decides there is no point in continuing efforts to settle new trade terms before the transition period ends on January 1 after a call between the PM and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen failed to achieve a breakthrough. But many remain nervous about the impact of No Deal on a fragile economy, with one Cabinet source told the Mail: ‘The possibility of chaos at the border has been significantly underpriced if talks collapse.’
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